[101 Trading Ideas] Chicken and Egg #strategy #101tradingideas

101 Trading Ideas:

#29 Trade ‘next cause’ or ‘next effect’

Triggered Idea:

What came first, the chicken or the egg?

From Triggered Idea to Trading Strategy:

What happens to Crude when the Dollar moves over 20 days, Ten Year Notes move over 10 days and Crude is rangebound over 10 days

Long Rules (reversal strategy, always in market)

the dollar is up over the last 20 days (egg)

ten year notes are up over the last 10 days (egg)

crude oil has moved less than 3 ATR’s over the last 10 days (chicken!)

then buy crude

Short Rules:

Opposite Long Rules

Results (2006-p)

w/l: 51%

avg trade: $1.58

z: 1.67

profitable 8 of 10 years, not profitable 2010, 2015

Notes:

A rough draft, alpha hunt idea. Not a complete strategy.

Might be an interesting starter idea for Quantiacs.

There is risk in trading. Most strategies degrade when moving from in-sample backtests to out-of-sample live markets. Be careful.

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