[101 Trading Ideas] Econ 101 #strategy #us #101tradingideas

This strategy is another example of using 101 Trading Ideas to find alpha – this strategy is based on an idea triggered by ‘Krebs Cycle’.

101 Trading Ideas:

#98 Krebs Cycle

Triggered Idea:

What chemical reaction produces energy in the markets? In the bond market? A) The employment report.

From Triggered Idea to Trading Strategy:

What happens when the bonds and the dollar are both higher after the next to last employment report?

Long Rules (long only strategy/indicator)

the close of bonds is higher then the close of bonds the next to last employment report

the close of the dollar is higher than the close of the dollar the next to last employment report

then buy bonds

Short Rules:



After 20 days

US Econ101

Results (2007-p)

trades: 59

w/l: 59%,  35/59

avg trade: 1.31 pts

z: 2.33

profitable 7 of 10 years

Notes and Next Steps:

The inverse of this strategy, the short side, does not work which makes me wary but it might be interesting as an indicator until the employment trend changed.

A rough draft, alpha hunt idea. Not a complete strategy.

There is risk in trading. Most strategies degrade when moving from in-sample backtests to out-of-sample live markets. Be careful.

101 Trading Ideas:

This strategy idea was triggered by 101 Trading Ideas, A Magical List for Fast-Paced Alpha Hunting. It turns out that ideas are like the old-fashioned game of telephone – when the List says one thing, you hear a more personal, interesting trading idea. As you scan the List while thinking of the markets, when you pause, when you find yourself thinking “What if…” that is your idea! Try it, test it, find your alpha. It’s as easy as Scan, Pause, Idea, Scan, Pause, Idea.

More info on the book here. The book is available on Amazon in print and for Kindle.

Leave a Reply