Super Forecasters and FOMC

Bloomberg article, Super Forecasters and Fed Decision: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-28/what-the-superforecasters-say-about-when-the-fed-will-lift-rate Superforecasting book: http://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Prediction-Philip-E-Tetlock-ebook/dp/B00RKO6MS8/ref=tmm_kin_swatch_0 And you’ll probably want Thinking Fast and Slow, too: http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman-ebook/dp/B00555X8OA/ref=pd_sim_351_3

Potential Rangebound Day, October 26, 2015

Potential Rangebound Day, October 26, 2105 Odds of a new Multiday Positioning move: 5% Odds Thursday’s Positioning move continues (fuel): 60% (counting) Odds today is a Trend Day (current Trend Odds): 8% Odds today drifts in Thursday’s direction: 60%

Positioning Moves vs Trading Moves

Positioning Moves vs Trading Moves Positioning Moves: Fundamental expectations have changed and all the markets need to adjust. Big Trend Days. Maybe multiple Trend Days. Identify with: Market Stress, Trend Odds and Fundamental news Trading Moves: Individual market expectations have changed. Or not. May be Trend Days or Rangebound Days. Identify with: Trend Odds, Market Read more about Positioning Moves vs Trading Moves[…]