Super Forecasters and FOMC

Bloomberg article, Super Forecasters and Fed Decision: Superforecasting book: And you’ll probably want Thinking Fast and Slow, too:

Potential Rangebound Day, October 26, 2015

Potential Rangebound Day, October 26, 2105 Odds of a new Multiday Positioning move: 5% Odds Thursday’s Positioning move continues (fuel): 60% (counting) Odds today is a Trend Day (current Trend Odds): 8% Odds today drifts in Thursday’s direction: 60%

Positioning Moves vs Trading Moves

Positioning Moves vs Trading Moves Positioning Moves: Fundamental expectations have changed and all the markets need to adjust. Big Trend Days. Maybe multiple Trend Days. Identify with: Market Stress, Trend Odds and Fundamental news Trading Moves: Individual market expectations have changed. Or not. May be Trend Days or Rangebound Days. Identify with: Trend Odds, Market Read more about Positioning Moves vs Trading Moves[…]