[idea] Has the World Changed, Part 2 #idea #es

Adds a refutation to original idea and creates a stepwise path through scenarios: refutation to the world has changed. This would be an interesting controller for a portfolio of strategies.

 

June 27, 2016

Has the world changed?

ES Bear Bull
No Overbought

GDP falling

FOMC trapped

 

Test 1950

Future growth underestimated

FOMC easing/backstopping

 

 

Test 2100

Yes Retest level last time world changed

 

Retest 1800

Retest level last time world changed

 

Retest 1800

 

Average retest: 1912.50

If below 1912.50, then retest 1800

 

 

 

Refutation

ES Bear Bull
No Overbought

GDP falling

FOMC trapped

 

Fairly valued

Falling GDP offset by future growth

FOMC has tools

 

Test 1975

Future growth underestimated

FOMC easing/backstopping

 

Future growth overestimated

FOMC trapped

NIRP destabilizing

 

 

Test 1975

Yes Retest level last time world changed

 

50% retracement better gauge

 

Retest 1950

Retest level last time world changed

 

Not as bad this time

 

Retest 1950

 

Average retest: 1962.50

If below 1962.50 then retest 1912.50

 

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