[Stats] December vs January

Trend Day Forecast
December vs January Stats

This is hard for everyone.

My stats are off roughly 50% per category, i.e., in December I was getting the Trend Day/Rangebound Day forecasts right 61% of the time, in January that number is 36%.

Everything is Overbought or Oversold on longer term time frames – 

Weekly 011916

But we’re still working off years of excess – 

Monthly 011916

I’m looking for VIX to fall and for my forecast percentages to return to normal as the signals the correction is over (and if that doesn’t work I’ll wait until all the gains in ES since 2013 have been erased as a fallback.)

I think the ‘years of excess’ is key because markets don’t like to be forced (think Nixon’s price controls).

Hang in there, 


Henry Carstens

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