Trend Odds: Trend Day or Rangebound Day?

Trend Odds give the odds of a Trend Day across futures markets. The biggest Trend Days occur when multiple markets are moving together.

Trend Odds

Combine Trend Odds with the Equity Trend Indicator and Market Stress for a complete picture of whether today is better suited for momentum tools or reversion tools.

For example:

If Trend Odds are low, the red squares in Market Stress are trading opportunities (reversals). On non-Trend Days, red squares in Market Stress are generally statistically significant.

If Trend Odds are high and Market Stress is mostly red then today’s trading opportunities are more likely to be momentum based. Extremes in Trend Odds and Market Stress can lead to Risk Events where markets reprice themselves abruptly.

 

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